4 October 2013 at 11:30
Not for the first time the Tories wrote off Labour leader Ed Miliband during the summer parliamentary recess.
He has continued to struggle at the dispatch box at Prime Minister Questions; he had gone AWOL without beeper, laptop or mobile phone for the holiday season, and Labour colleagues from past and present were publicly and privately briefing the press about their dissatisfaction of their leaders’ performance and his inability to make any significant breakthrough in the polls.
On the face of it you would think this was good news for the Prime Minister. In fact a weak opposition that appears unlikely to offer a serious challenge to the government at the next election simply provides an environment of complacency to develop which results in Tory backwoodsmen indulging in right wing gesture politics, and an unhealthy flirtation with the Monty Python political party that is UKIP.
Rather than capitalise on its advantage over the summer months, Conservatives turned inward, rather than engaging with the electorate – and by the end of the conference season they are horrified to discover that ‘Red Ed’ is far from dead.
Demonstrating a steely determination that few other than those closest to him would give him credit for, Miliband has taken on the press barons, stopped what would have been a premature jump into a war with Syria, and now has decided to take on the hated energy companies.
All of a sudden Labour has a poll ranking of 41% – more than enough to give them an overall majority at the next election.
David Cameron will be hoping that Ed’s bounce will force his party to re-engage with their brains, and with the issues that matter to the British electorate, which quite frankly do not include huntin’, fishin’, fracking, or even the EU.
Cameron’s conference speech this week in Manchester may have been short on policy, but it was long on warnings. Warnings about Labour’s spending plans. Warnings about Socialism. Most of all warnings about a Tory return to opposition. The intention of Cameron’s 45 minutes in the spotlight was to remind his party that the next election is not in the bag, and that they must refocus on the issues that go beyond their individual hobby horses.
In the end it is ‘the economy stupid’ for the vast majority of voters, and for that Cameron and his chancellor will be grateful.
Because in poll after poll, the area where Labour continues to lag far behind the Tories is on the question of economic competency. The recent upturn in the economy has blown out of the water Ed Balls’ claim that austerity would lead to disaster. Bashing energy companies, banks and big business may look attractive two years out from an election, but will such anti-enterprise rhetoric look as appetising to an electorate that at its core is more aspirational than altruistic?
In the short term concentrating on living standards, ‘the squeezed middle’ and his ‘Britain can do better than this’ message will serve Ed Miliband well. However, if the economy continues to recover, a Tory narrative around paying down the deficit, tax cuts for ‘hard working families’ and support for enterprise will likely win the day.
Nonetheless, Miliband has proved that he cannot be written off, should not be underestimated, and will provide a far tougher challenge to the Conservatives’ in 2015 that many thought possible. For that, David Cameron might just be grateful.